Journal of Analytical and Applied Computer Sciences
Peer Reviewed Open Access Journal
ISSN: 3139-3349
Peer Reviewed Open Access Journal
ISSN: 3139-3349
Nigeria's oil and gas sector, the bedrock of the national economy accounting for over 87% of foreign exchange earnings, suffers chronic infrastructure deterioration resulting in annual production losses estimated at $3–5 billion. Conventional preventive and reactive maintenance paradigms have proven inadequate for the scale and operational hazards of Nigerian petroleum infrastructure. This study develops, validates, and compares five AI-based predictive maintenance (PdM) models – Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), XGBoost, and Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) – for fault detection and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction, using a dataset of 52,840 multi-sensor time-series observations collected from operational Nigerian oil and gas installations over 2019–2024. The stacked ensemble model achieved the highest classification accuracy of 98.1% (F1-Score: 0.977; AUC-ROC: 0.994), outperforming the TFT (97.3%), LSTM (96.7%), and XGBoost (95.1%) individually, and substantially exceeding the conventional preventive maintenance baseline (71.4%). Economic impact analysis reveals that AI PdM deployment reduced annual unplanned downtime by 68.2% (from 4,218 to 1,342 hours), decreased maintenance expenditure by 47.3% (from $521.4M to $274.8M), and recovered an estimated $5.64 billion in previously lost production revenue annually. Macroeconomic modelling projects a 1.5 percentage point uplift in the oil sector's contribution to Nigeria's GDP. These findings establish a compelling evidence base for the systematic adoption of AI predictive maintenance across Nigeria's petroleum infrastructure and provide actionable policy recommendations for NUPRC, NNPC Limited, and international oil company (IOC) operators.
Predictive Maintenance; Artificial Intelligence; LSTM; XGBoost; Transformer; Oil and Gas Infrastructure; Nigeria; Operational Efficiency; Economic Output; Industry 4.0
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